A Royal Need: Roy Oswalt

A couple of days ago, I wrote about the real need that the Royals still had (and no not Yuniesky Betancourt who was signed today to a one year deal). The glaring need I wrote about was that the Royals still needed to address their pitching and obtain an front of the line starter.

The two names I suggested were Roy Oswalt and Joe Saunders. Come to find out today (according to Jerry Crasnick) that Roy Oswalt has soften his demands. Oswalt is now asking for a one year deal instead of a multi-year deal.

A lot of concern has been shown to Oswalts health. Teams were weary of giving him a multi-year deal because of it, and it appears that Oswalt wants to prove that he is healthy.

The signs of him not being himself last year are there. Oswalts fastball velocity was in the 88-90 MPH range, down from his usual 94 MPH. Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was quoted as say Oswalt’s fastball “has no life.”

That wasn’t the only sign. Oswalt couldn’t seem to get ahead of hitters all season, with only 24% of all his at bats going to 0-2 counts. That’s the lowest for him since 2008, where he only had 27% of his at bats go to 0-2. His career average is at 30%.

That may be due to the fact that people were getting the best of Roy. Hitters hit .280 against him last year, by far the worst number he’s put up. Oswalt also posted his highest OBP and OPS of his career - .325 and .736 respectively.  It’s not just an inflated stat either. In 2010 Oswalt pitched 211.2 innings and gave up 162 hits. In only 139 innings last year Oswalt gave up 153 hits.

That brings us back to his fastball, which he used to help strike out a number of hitters. He posted the worse K/9 rate of his career in 2011, only striking out 6 hitters per 9 innings. The year before he had an 8.2 K/9. Though he couldn’t strike them out, he didn’t put them on either.

Which in the end may show that he can still be himself. Clearly Oswalt wasn’t the same last year, but he did show signs of being able to come back to form. He had a better time striking out hitters in the second half last year posting a 6.8 K/9 in the second half. Compared to a 5.3 first half, Oswalt adjusted better during the second half.

Oswalt also posted his best BAA(batting average against) of the season in September. Players only hit .242 against Oswalt in his final 6 games. He had 31 of his 93 K’s in that stretch. He also cut down on the base runners during September as Oswalt posted an 1.171 WHIP.

What should also be noted about Oswalt’s 2011 September is that he went 7 innings in 4 of his 6 starts. In each of those starts, he at least went 6 innings, and into the 7^th in 5 of those 6 starts. It’s not a full season, but it does show that he retained some of his health.

Anybody who gives Oswalt a contract is betting on him being the Oswalt of September and not of May-August. His track record is one of an Ace, a Cy Young calibar pitcher capable of leading any pitching staff.

This is where the Royals come into play. Dayton Moore has shown patience in the starting pitching market since signing Gil Meche in 2007. The majority of Royals starters that Dayton Moore has acquired other thane Meche have been by signing low-tier free agents, via trades, or from within.

While there is nothing wrong with that way of acquiring pitchers, it shouldn’t be the only way. You should always be trying to improve your big league ball-club. I get that a big part of that is by developing players in your system, but there are times when you have to go out and get proven talent. Insert Oswalt.

It is a risk/reward situation, but I consider this a medium risk/high reward in Oswalt’s case. It isn’t like he didn’t come back and had a year ending injury last year. He came back and started 15 games in August and September. In August and September Oswalt posted an 3.61 ERA with an 6.8 K/9 rate. Much improved on the 5.13 K/9 rate he posted from April to June.

I think that he simply just needed some time off to heal and that this off-season has proven that. In other words, he is well worth the risk. I personally thought that he would get an 2 year deal around $20 million on the open market, but now I can see him getting an $9 million, one year deal with incentives on performance this year.

If that is the case, then there should be no way that the Royals are outbid in the Oswalt auction. I’m not saying that the Royals should give him the most money no matter what. Any team offering over $13 million for Oswalt this off-season is way overpaying. That said, the Royals have no reason that the can’t and shouldn’t go after Roy Oswalt.

The Royals have financial flexibility, especially since Gil Meche didn’t collect the final $12 million of his contract. There is money that you had already spent allocated on pitching that you got to keep. Not to mention that a one year deal on Oswalt would be great for both him and the Royals. Oswalt gets to rebuild value for a free agent class next year which is already looking strong with the likes of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Zach Greinke just to name a few. The Royals then get a veteran starter who is proven and capable of leading an staff who (if things don’t work out) can either be traded or let go at the end of the year.

Lets not forget either that this team had the cheapest payroll in baseball last year. With the All-Star game coming, there should be some extra cash coming in as well.

As the General Manager of the Kansas City Royals, it is Dayton Moore’s job to put the best team on the field that he possibly can. That doesn’t mean going out and spending all the money in the world, but that does mean taking a look at players who will help you get over the hump and truly contend for the playoffs. I would truly wonder what the mindset of the front office is if the Royals don’t go after what seems to be a perfect fit in Oswalt and make him a serious offer.

If the Royals are serious about contending this year, then they will take a long hard look at Roy Oswalt. If the Royals do land Oswalt, then its safe to that the Royals have begun step 2 of “the process” – contending for the playoffs and World Series. 

Analyzing the Royals Off-Season….so far

Welcome back! It’s been a long while since I’ve been around here and posting my thoughts on the Royals. Truth be told, its been an extremely busy year for me. But I am ready to saddle it up again and begin to write about the team I love again.

This off-season may seem quiet so far. The Royals haven’t been on a spending spree like the Marlins or given out lucrative contracts as the Angels have, but they have made some intriguing moves so far. Let’s recap some of the Royals’ off-season moves so far:

11/07/11 – Kansas City acquires LHP Jonathan Sanchez and RHP Ryan Verdugo for OF Melky Cabrera

11/11/11 – Kansas City signs 16 year old Venezuelan LHP Alejandro Viloria

11/15/11 – Kansas City signs LHP Tommy Hottovy (30 year old minor league journeyman; has been in the Red Sox’s system his whole career)

11/23/11 – Kansas City re-signs LHP Bruce Chen to a 2 year, $9 million deal.

11/29/11 – The Royals agree to terms with RHP Jonathan Broxton on a 1 year, $4 million deal.

11/30/11 – Former second round pick SS Jeff Bianchi designated for assignment (The Cubs have since claimed him off waivers)

12/08/11 – IF Yamacio Navarro is traded to the Pirates for RHP Brooks Pounders (2nd round pick in 2009 draft, 21 years old) and IF Diego Goris (3 years in Pirates System playing in Dominican Summer League).

12/13/11 – Kansas City agrees to minor league deals with RHP Juan Guiterrez, C Max Ramirez, and OF Greg Golson.

There are a couple of other minor league signings here and there, such as the claiming and releasing of Aaron Laffey. That being said, the primary goal of this off-season was to improve our starting pitching. The everyday lineup is set for the foreseeable future (assuming Cain gets his shot at CF) and you have an army arms in the bullpen now that you’ve added Broxton into the mix.

Though the bullpen is stocked well, the Royals are still looking for a situational left-handed reliever to help out Tim Collins (currently the only LHP in the bullpen). They are also looking for a utility IF.

Though I agree that those are needs for the Royals, I still have to believe that the main goal of upgrading your starting pitching has not been accomplished. In retrospect to the end of last year, you have only added one starter, that being Sanchez. Though I love the trade and think that he is a improvement over Jeff Francis, Jonathan Sanchez is in the end taking Francis’ spot from last year. And by resigning Chen you are looking at a very similar rotation to the end of last year. Lets take a quick look at a potential rotation for next year.

Locks in the Rotation:

Jonathan Sanchez (4-7, 4.26 ERA in 101.1 IP, 9.1 K/9, 1.441 WHIP)

Luke Hochevar (11-11, 4.68 ERA in 198 IP, 5.8 K/9, 1.283 WHIP)

Bruce Chen (12-8, 3.77 ERA in 155 IP, 5.6 K/9, 1.303 WHIP)

Probables:

Danny Duffy (4-8, 5.64 ERA in 105.1 IP, 7.4 K/9, 1.614 WHIP)

Felipe Paulino (4-6, 4.11 ERA in 124.2 IP, 8.6 K/9, 1.372 WHIP)

Possibly in the mix:

Luis Mendoza (1.23 ERA in 14.2 MLB IP; 12-5, 2.18 ERA in 144.1 IP in AAA)

Aaron Crow (4-4, 2.76 ERA in 62 IP, 9.4 K/9, 1.387 WHIP)

It’s not bad…..but it’s not great either. At this point, its above average and I have this fear that GMDM believes that his rotation issues are settled by just bringing back Chen and acquiring Sanchez. Though the Royals have been the subject of rumors with pitchers (such as Gio Gonzalez), it seems that we’re more than likely going to have to be content with what we have…again.

Which is a shame for me because although I do believe that our rotation is only above average at best right now I also believe that this rotation has potential to become better than an above average rotation. I also believe that the way you get there is by getting a veteran pitcher with experience leading a staff and pitching in the playoffs.

I believe that the Royals (without hindering the “process”) can and should go out and get another starting pitcher on the market on a one or two year deal. Though some of the bigger names are off the market right now, there are still two names that I would be willing to personally drive up to Kansas City to get them signed:

1)   Roy Oswalt – 9-10, 3.69 ERA in 139 IP, 6 K/9, 1.338 WHIP with Philadelphia
I know that he’s coming off an injury plagued year with his back acting up, but I believe that if he’s fully healthy, your are getting an player who still has #1 starter potential. From 2001-2008, he won at least 14 games each year and he would’ve won at least 14 in 2010 had he not pitched half of the year for an terrible Astros team (finished 2010 13-13 with an 2.76 ERA and a 8.4 K/9). From 2004-2010, Oswalt averaged at least 215 innings a season while averaging an 3.48 K/BB ratio. But the thing he would bring the Royals more is a pitcher who has been the leader of multiple pitching staffs in the past. I think the reward far outweighs the risk for Oswalt.

2)    Joe Saunders – 12-13, 3.69 ERA in 212 IP, 4.6 K/9, 1.307 WHIP with Arizona
He’s started opening day for the Angels, been successful in the American League, and after being traded to one of the worst teams in the National League he helped lead them to the postseason. He’s also only 30 years old. Saunders isn’t flashy, but he’s a guys with 4 different pitches and is very efficient. According the ESPN’s Inside Edge, Saunders threw 3 or less pitches 68% last year while only 19% of his plate appearances went to 3 ball counts. He would be a good compliment to Sanchez, Hochevar, and Chen at the front of a rotation as he would provide stability and a pitcher with experience in leading a young pitching staff (and team) to the playoffs.

I wouldn’t hesitate to sign Oswalt to an 2-year deal for somewhere in the range of $18-$20 million or Saunders to a one or two year deal (1 year, $9 million/2 years $17.5 or $18 million). Both of these pitchers would be beneficial signings that not only will help your ball club now, but they either would give you good trade chips down the road if needed. 

I might add that the Royals do indeed have plenty of money to spend on one of these two or any other starter they might want to add. The Royals were last in spending last year as the Royals’ payroll was only $35,712,400 last year, or around $6.2 million less than the Tampa Bay Rays. In total (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts) the Royals’ total payroll ended up being $38,176,000. You can take a look at the spreadsheet yourself here. That payroll includes the $11 million saved last year when Gil Meche retired and decided not to collect the payment of the last year of his contract.

Basically, the Royals have a lot of financial freedom right now. I realize that big reason why we have a small payroll is because the young guys are starting to break through. Translate that to inexpensive players. We do need flexibility to keep these guys like Hosmer, Perez, Gordon, etc..I get that. But at some point you have to take risk to improve your big league ball club. The Broxton signing is a perfect example of that. If he’s healthy, that is a steal and adds flexibility to the team. You can trade him if your out of at the trade deadline, or you can move Soria and put Broxton in the closers role.

I commend GMDM for sticking to the process, and in all honesty, I truly believe the process will be successful. But now is the time to go out and get a guy that can help your team win now while at the same time keeping the prospects in your system. Take a chance this off-season GMDM and improve your team.