Friday, December 11, 2009

The Non-Tender Market for the Royals


By tomorrow at 11 PM central time, players who are non-tender candidates must be offered a contract by there team or they become a free agent. For those who don't understand how this works, a player is a non-tender candidate when they become arbitration eligible and his club determines he is not worth the salary he might command in arbitration. A player who is non-tendered becomes a free agent and may sign with any of the 30 Major League clubs, including his former team, at any price.

With that said, we could see plenty of quality players become free agents before Saturday night. The Royals have already cut two players who were non-tender candidates: 1B/DH Mike Jacobs and lefty reliever John Bale. Jacobs was a bust this year, hitting .228 with a OBP of .297 with 19 homers and 61 RBI in 478 plate appearances. Bale posted some of the worst stats of his career, posting a 5.72 ERA in 28.1 innings. Hitters also hit .296 off Bale, the second highest average of his career, as well as a .390 OBP. Expect C John Buck to join them on Saturday, a player who has continually not become the power hitter the Royals thought he would. Maybe a change of scenery would do him good.

Both of these players are gone, and by Saturday night, their will be plenty of others added to the free agent pool. The question for the Royals is their anybody worthy of going after if they are non-tendered? Here's a few that could fit in KC.


1. Kevin Correia, SP, San Diego Padres - Correia was a nice surprise for the Padres, posting a 3.91 ERA in 33 starts, pitching 198 innings with 142 K's. It was a nice bounce-back year for Correia, coming over as a free agent last year from the Giants on a minor league deal.

The Padres have already tried giving him a contract for next season, but Correia isn't excepting, meaning that unless the team trades him before tomorrow, he is expected to be non-tendered on Saturday. The Royals need to add depth to their pitching staff, an their is upside to the Royals going after Correia. He's 28 years old and has a little over 5 years of major league experience. He made $1.1 million this year, and though he'll get paid more than $1.1 million, the Royals should take a shot at getting a starter with experience that is fairly inexpensive.

Correia has a low 90's fastball, a good change-up and slider. Though none of his pitches are fearful to hitters, Correia has the makings of a good mid-to-low end starter, and should be on the Royals radar when he gets non-tendered Saturday..


2. Dioner Navarro, C, Tampa Bay Rays - Now we know that the Royals are on the Jason Kendall pursuit, but let's slow down a second. Navarro is coming off an down year, posting an .218 AVG with 8 HR and 32 RBI. The year before, The Rays went to the World Series, and Navarro hit .295 with an .349 OBP, 27 double's, and 54 RB as the primary catcher. In the 2008 postseason, he posted an .293 AVG.

Not only did he hit well that year, but he also posted an 3.90 ERA when he was behind the plate in 08 and a 4.18 ERA in 09. He threw out 38% of base runners in 08 and 27% in 09.

The Royals are looking for an catcher obviously, and since they aren't keeping John Buck or going to re-sign Miguel Olivo, they are need of a catcher, preferably one with major league experience.

Navarro is only 26 years old and has 5 years of service time under his belt. Wherever he is next year, I look for him to bounce back and have a good year, I would prefer the Royals to go after Navarro over a veteran like Kendall or Barajas.

UPDATE - They Royals have signed Jason Kendall to a two year deal....so kiss this idea goodbye.


3. John Maine, SP, NYM - If Maine was able to stay healthy, I don't think theirs a chance he would get non-tendered, and I still think that there's a good chance he would be back. But the Mets have been waiting on Maine to be the quality pitcher he's shown at times he can be. He's had arm issues over the past couple of years and posted a 4.43 ERA in 81.1 innings, starting 15 games and going 7-6. His best seasons were when Maine compiled a 21-15 record with a 3.75 ERA, 251 K's and holding hitters to a .223 AVG during the 2006-07 seasons.

Main will be 29 next year and has upside. If healthy, he has shown that he can be a quality starting pitcher in the major league level, but we will have to see how he comes back from injury. The Royals could use a pitcher like Maine to solidify it's rotation, and they may be able to get a good pitcher at a cheap price in Maine. I don't expect Maine to get more than $3 million at the most on the market, considering he is coming off of injury and made $2..6 million last year. We'll see what happens.

This is a short list, but there is some good options for the Royals to look at in the non-tender market to look at, especially before grabbing a Jason Kendall or a Mark Mulder.

Thanks to MLBtraderumors.com, Baseball-Reference.com, and ESPN.com for info.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Where do we ship you Jose Guillen?

I know that he's come out and said that he wants to play in Kansas City next year and claims he is healthy, but the fact of the matter is this: he is owed $12 million next year, he's 34, he's been bothered by injuries, and he's been a semi-cancer in the clubhouse. Every knows we are trying to trade him, mainly to get his contract off the books, and if I'm Dayton Moore I would be doing the same thing.

The fact is that if were going to trade Jose Guillen, were going to have to give a little up as well. As the old saying goes, "to get a little you have to get a little." So in a week were GM's are up way past their bedtimes making deals with free agents and other teams, I have a couple of ideas for how the Royals could unload Jose. They probably won't ever get discussed, but there just ideas.


1. Derek Lowe (ATL) for Jose Guillen and a minor league prospect (Tim Melville) - Now this deal wouldn't have KC really making cap room available, and I know Derek Lowe is 38, but this trade would give the Royals a solid top 3 of the rotation. Dayton is bud's with the trades, plus the Braves are looking for a OF power bat. This trade would force the Royals to go and sign or trade for an OF, preferably one with power. I've always liked Derek Lowe because he is a workhorse, and this trade would give depth to a pitching staff that desperately needs depth as well as experience. I put Tim Melville in this deal because I'm sure that the Braves would want some prospect in return with taking on Jose, and since the Royals have a lot of young pitching prospects, I could see them trading one of them (not necessarily Melville) in a deal like this, especially since the Braves would need to eat some money to make this deal work.

The Braves have also come out and stated that they aren't asking for a veteran bat for him and will eat money as well, which I'm sure the Royals would ask for, since he is owed $15 million over each of the next three years, and that would be one big reason that this deal more than likely could never happen.


2. Brendan Ryan and Kyle McClellan(STL) for Jose Guillen and Mike Aviles - I know others may still like Mike Aviles, but let's face the facts: the only role that he may have as far as playing time goes may be in Triple-A unless some gets hurt or stumbles. He's 29 years old and is already due to injury in a backup role. I'm not writing off Mike completely, but his best position is 2B and 3B, and that void is filled by 2 people right now in each position right now.

Seeing as St. Louis needs a 3B, Aviles may have a chance to make an run there. This trade could only happen also if the Red Birds don't sign Holliday or Bay, because they don't need a power bat as badly to protect Pujols if they get either one of those OF to come here. It would be a cheap return, a young IF with promise in Ryan, and good young reliever in McClellan, but this trade would give the Royals one much needed thing, that being money to spend.


3. Jeff Francoeur and Angel Pagan or John Maine,(NYM) for Jose Guillen and Alberto Callaspo - There have been rumors over the past couple of weeks of a Guillen for Luis Castillo swap, as well as a Guillen for Pagan swap, and this trade would be a good trade for both teams. For one, it would help out the Mets in giving them a solid hitting 2B in Callaspo, though you would be sacrificing defense by playing him. You also get a corner power bat that is a veteran bat to help balance that lineup out, especially with the losses of Gary Sheffield and Carlos Delgado. Jose could have chance to thrive in the 5 or 6 hole there in NY, as well as Callaspo who has proven he can hit in the 5, 6, and 7 hole by his stats last year.

Francoeur has been someone that Dayton Moore has wanted to get since the beginning of his tenure, as we even heard rumors of a Francoeur for Greinke swap (thank goodness that didn't happen), so I wouldn't see this as a surprise if we started hearing rumors involving those two in the coming months. The reason I put either Pagan or Maine in their is that the Royals need both pitching and OF help. Though I want him back, the Royals are ways apart in possibly re-signing Coco Crisp, and need an center fielder . Pagan could fill that role. Maine on the other hand would give the Royals a young starter looking to bounce back from injury. Remember, it was only about 3 years ago when the Royals got a quality young starter from the Mets for Ambiorix Burgos, that pitcher being Brain Bannister (a forgotten good move by Dayton).

One thing the Royals would have to do is eat some of Guillen's contract, but not all of it. This would most likely result in the Royals books being the same, as Francoeur and Pagan or Maine would add up to around Guillen's salary when you take in that the Royals may need to eat $6-8 million to make this work. The only other way that a trade like this works is if the Mets would want Castillo in this deal, to help contracts work.

Remember these are only ideas, but we'll most likely see Jose in RF next opening day. My hope is that we do ship Jose out of here and vamp up for the 2010 off-season, but I guess we should get ready for another season of Jose in right field. Get your Jose chants ready.