A Royal Need: Roy Oswalt

A couple of days ago, I wrote about the real need that the Royals still had (and no not Yuniesky Betancourt who was signed today to a one year deal). The glaring need I wrote about was that the Royals still needed to address their pitching and obtain an front of the line starter.

The two names I suggested were Roy Oswalt and Joe Saunders. Come to find out today (according to Jerry Crasnick) that Roy Oswalt has soften his demands. Oswalt is now asking for a one year deal instead of a multi-year deal.

A lot of concern has been shown to Oswalts health. Teams were weary of giving him a multi-year deal because of it, and it appears that Oswalt wants to prove that he is healthy.

The signs of him not being himself last year are there. Oswalts fastball velocity was in the 88-90 MPH range, down from his usual 94 MPH. Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was quoted as say Oswalt’s fastball “has no life.”

That wasn’t the only sign. Oswalt couldn’t seem to get ahead of hitters all season, with only 24% of all his at bats going to 0-2 counts. That’s the lowest for him since 2008, where he only had 27% of his at bats go to 0-2. His career average is at 30%.

That may be due to the fact that people were getting the best of Roy. Hitters hit .280 against him last year, by far the worst number he’s put up. Oswalt also posted his highest OBP and OPS of his career - .325 and .736 respectively.  It’s not just an inflated stat either. In 2010 Oswalt pitched 211.2 innings and gave up 162 hits. In only 139 innings last year Oswalt gave up 153 hits.

That brings us back to his fastball, which he used to help strike out a number of hitters. He posted the worse K/9 rate of his career in 2011, only striking out 6 hitters per 9 innings. The year before he had an 8.2 K/9. Though he couldn’t strike them out, he didn’t put them on either.

Which in the end may show that he can still be himself. Clearly Oswalt wasn’t the same last year, but he did show signs of being able to come back to form. He had a better time striking out hitters in the second half last year posting a 6.8 K/9 in the second half. Compared to a 5.3 first half, Oswalt adjusted better during the second half.

Oswalt also posted his best BAA(batting average against) of the season in September. Players only hit .242 against Oswalt in his final 6 games. He had 31 of his 93 K’s in that stretch. He also cut down on the base runners during September as Oswalt posted an 1.171 WHIP.

What should also be noted about Oswalt’s 2011 September is that he went 7 innings in 4 of his 6 starts. In each of those starts, he at least went 6 innings, and into the 7^th in 5 of those 6 starts. It’s not a full season, but it does show that he retained some of his health.

Anybody who gives Oswalt a contract is betting on him being the Oswalt of September and not of May-August. His track record is one of an Ace, a Cy Young calibar pitcher capable of leading any pitching staff.

This is where the Royals come into play. Dayton Moore has shown patience in the starting pitching market since signing Gil Meche in 2007. The majority of Royals starters that Dayton Moore has acquired other thane Meche have been by signing low-tier free agents, via trades, or from within.

While there is nothing wrong with that way of acquiring pitchers, it shouldn’t be the only way. You should always be trying to improve your big league ball-club. I get that a big part of that is by developing players in your system, but there are times when you have to go out and get proven talent. Insert Oswalt.

It is a risk/reward situation, but I consider this a medium risk/high reward in Oswalt’s case. It isn’t like he didn’t come back and had a year ending injury last year. He came back and started 15 games in August and September. In August and September Oswalt posted an 3.61 ERA with an 6.8 K/9 rate. Much improved on the 5.13 K/9 rate he posted from April to June.

I think that he simply just needed some time off to heal and that this off-season has proven that. In other words, he is well worth the risk. I personally thought that he would get an 2 year deal around $20 million on the open market, but now I can see him getting an $9 million, one year deal with incentives on performance this year.

If that is the case, then there should be no way that the Royals are outbid in the Oswalt auction. I’m not saying that the Royals should give him the most money no matter what. Any team offering over $13 million for Oswalt this off-season is way overpaying. That said, the Royals have no reason that the can’t and shouldn’t go after Roy Oswalt.

The Royals have financial flexibility, especially since Gil Meche didn’t collect the final $12 million of his contract. There is money that you had already spent allocated on pitching that you got to keep. Not to mention that a one year deal on Oswalt would be great for both him and the Royals. Oswalt gets to rebuild value for a free agent class next year which is already looking strong with the likes of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Zach Greinke just to name a few. The Royals then get a veteran starter who is proven and capable of leading an staff who (if things don’t work out) can either be traded or let go at the end of the year.

Lets not forget either that this team had the cheapest payroll in baseball last year. With the All-Star game coming, there should be some extra cash coming in as well.

As the General Manager of the Kansas City Royals, it is Dayton Moore’s job to put the best team on the field that he possibly can. That doesn’t mean going out and spending all the money in the world, but that does mean taking a look at players who will help you get over the hump and truly contend for the playoffs. I would truly wonder what the mindset of the front office is if the Royals don’t go after what seems to be a perfect fit in Oswalt and make him a serious offer.

If the Royals are serious about contending this year, then they will take a long hard look at Roy Oswalt. If the Royals do land Oswalt, then its safe to that the Royals have begun step 2 of “the process” – contending for the playoffs and World Series. 

A Royal Problem: Improving KC For 2010

On May 7th, the Kansas City Royals were 18-11. Zach Grienke was in the beginning stages of a Cy Young winning season (hopefully true in a couple of weeks) and the Royals were in first place. Well, unfortunately injuries happened, and now we find the Royals finishing with Cleveland in the bottom of the AL Central.

I am one to believe that the Royals can compete in 2010. Let's be honest, this team was completely destroyed by its injuries. Lets take a look at the injury list last year. When you lose Coco Crisp, Jose Guillen (who needs to be in a retirement home), Mike Aviles, and Alex Gordon, all who the Royals counted on to be big parts of their team, your bound to have issues (as we saw with the lack of depth they had). Not to mention, Joakim Soria's injury in the middle of the season didn't help either, an injury in May (along with Robinson Tejada's) that completely shifted bullpen roles to people not fit for them (sorry Juan Cruz, your still not a closer).

But that was 2009: Let's start looking to 2010. The Royals can compete in 2010. Yes, I said it. If you look at the division next year, there are plenty of question marks around the division. We know the Indians are rebuilding, the White Sox (while they do have a solid rotation) are aging with their bats and aren't settled on Bobby Jenks as their closer next year, and the Tigers will have to play with what they have for the most part because of the contracts that they have on the books for next year. The Twins look to be balanced offensively next year, but have a spotty rotation (Nick Blackburn led the team in Starters ERA with a 4.02 ERA), not to mention they still may loose Orlando Cabrera to free agency and may need a middle infielder.

That said, the Royals still need to improve in order have a real chance of competing. Luckily, I'm full of idea's and I have an a couple of ideas that I think the Royals should look at.

1. Sign a starting pitcher - Assuming that Gill Meche, Zack Greinke, and Brian Bannister are the top 3 (not necessarily in that order), you have two spots left for Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, Robinson Tejada, and others to battle for. If I'm Dayton Moore, I would look at signing a starting pitcher. Personally, I would say Randy Wolf is your man, but he'll be to much to afford now for the Royal's, assuming they keep to the same payroll. You want a low-risk/high-reward, I would take a chance on Ben Sheets. He didn't pitch in 09 due to injury, but he did the smart thing and took the year off. Granted it may take him all of Spring Training to fully be back in the baseball groove, but look at his 08 line (3.09 ERA, 198.1 IP, 1.15 WHIP,
.241 BAA, 158 K's). He has a career ERA of 3.73, and when healthy, is a very very good starting pitcher. Offering him a one year deal with a club option for a 2nd year with a higher number on the salary would be a good idea for the Royals in my opinion. Not only does this make the starting pitching depth better, but you could also put Tejada, Davies, Hochevar (whomever loses out on a starting job) in the bullpen. Another pitcher that I feel the Royals should go after that is similar to Sheets are Rich Harden. When Harden is healthy, he has some of the best stuff in the game.

2. This may sound like a crazy idea to some (because he is a beast with the bat) but the Royals need look at offers for Alberto Callaspo. Yes he was a beast with the stick (.300 BA, 73 RBI's) and is young, but lets be honest: Callaspo is a DH. His defense is, well awful. I'm not saying trade him, I'm just saying look at offers.

3. Bring Back Coco Crisp: Yes the man was a disappointment last year, but he was playing hurt most of his games here in KC and lets be honest. Although Mitch Maier did improve as the year went on, he is a better corner outfielder/4th OF than he is a full-time CF and Josh Anderson still needs a little more time in the minors to improve his hitting. It's a interesting debate in some ways, but I think that Coco, when healthy, can provide both a solid lead-off hitter and an CF with outstanding range. Not picking up his option and resigning him to a incentive laced deal would be ideal for KC.

4. Look at offers for Mark Teahen. I love Mark Teahen, and in a perfect world, I wouldn't trade a guy who is both a great utility player and has great character. However, the Royals aren't perfect, and he has a ton of value being a utility player. He can play the corner OF, 3B, 1B, is willing to move somewhere if he has too (the '09 2B experiment). Teams are always looking for utility players, and I would be shopping him if I am Dayton Moore.

5. Sign Orlando Hudson. I'm still in shock that he was benched as much as he was in the playoffs, but this guy can do two things, play defense and hit. If a trade for Callaspo happens, I would be all over Hudson (.283 BA, .357 OBP 62 RBI's hitting for the Dodgers: .293 BA, .377 OBP in 229 AB's when batting 2nd in order). He'll be 32, looking for a starting gig, and can both hit and play defense, which is one of the major issues for the Royals last year.

6. Sign Brett Myers. This guy was a solid starter only a couple of years ago, but it seems Philly has turned against him. Myers is looking for a starting job and a change of scenery is something that may do Myers good. He's had a rough past couple of years in Philly, and with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Pedro Martinez, and Joe Blanton locked into that rotation for next year, Myers, a free agent, is more than likely looking for a new home. Another guy similar to this is Brad Penny, who flourished with the Giants after his release from the Red Sox (5.61 ERA in Boston, 2.59 ERA in San Francisco).


If you couldn't notice, I really think the Royals need to add a veteran starter. The more depth you have at starter the better chance you have a winning games and withstanding injuries. Plus you get the benefit of putting some of those pitchers in your bullpen, which is a even better benefit. Hopefully the Royals go that direction, but since they are looking at building heavily through the minors (which is good), I don't see much of this happening, but if the Royals want to compete, I suggest they look at some of these players.



Thanks to ESPN, MLB.Com, Baseball-Reference.com (www.baseball-reference.com), and Fan Graphs (www.fangraphs.com) for stats/info.